Sun finally shining for young jobseekers: employment prospects for young people will continue to rise beyond current post-recession highs

“After a long, dark decade, the prospects for young people are finally looking brighter. The tightening labour market is undoubtedly encouraging more employers to turn to a wider range of younger recruits. However, it is also due to a recognition among a growing number of employers that they need to develop talent to limit the potential for future labour shortages and pay pressures. The increase in the number of high-quality apprenticeships and the ongoing recruitment pressures faced by employers should mean that the pathway to sustainable employment will be within the reach of more young people.

However, employers need to support this recruitment drive by ensuring that they have the people management practices in place to support the effective utilisation of skills, which is critical to job retention and productivity. The UK has the second highest level of over-qualification in the OECD and unless more employers get better at putting their people’s skills to good use, efforts to boost their and the UK’s productivity will be critically undermined. Looking further ahead, the introduction of the ‘National Living Wage’ may boost the attractiveness of employing workers aged below 25 further, which could see young people reverse recent trends by becoming the new winners in a new era for the jobs market.”

“At one end of the spectrum, workers in occupations where there are skills or labour shortages and thriving sectors such as finance and construction seem likely to get pay increases well above current inflation. However, at the other end of the scale, many workers in areas such as manufacturing and public sector, are seeing only a very modest increase in living standards. In-between, the bulk of workers will continue to see moderate growth in their pay packets but with inflation expected to stay low, they should still feel the benefit of any increases.

The Labour Market Outlook finds that the level of median pay awards anticipated by employers for the next 12 months has edged up from 1.8% to 2%. Looking back over the last year the median basic pay award is also 2%. The CIPD data and analysis suggests that the increase in average earnings in recent months highlighted in official statistics may be inflated by a number of factors. These include a disproportionately large increase in the number of people in full-time employment, a relatively large above inflation increase in the National Minimum Wage and perhaps most significantly, workers in thriving industries or key roles which are in demand where workers can earn a premium.In the year to June 2015, almost a quarter of employers gave an increase of at least 3% while almost a fifth froze pay. Just 16% of employers raised wages in response to recruitment challenges. Looking ahead, a fifth of employers, mainly drawn from the private sector, say that their organisations will award a pay increase of 3% or more in the 12 months to June 2016. Meanwhile, fourteen per cent plan to freeze pay.