Daniel Khan-O’Malley, Senior Public Affairs (UK Nations), explores how elections in Scotland and Wales and employment rights reform in Northern Ireland could reshape the devolved nations in 2026.
2026 is set to be a significant year across the devolved nations, with elections in Scotland and Wales and a once-in-a-generation Good Jobs Employment Rights Bill in Northern Ireland. Against this backdrop, the CIPD’s Devolved Nations Policy and Public Affairs team will be engaging elected members in all three nations in what will be a crucial year for all. There will be manifesto influencing in Scotland and Wales, and crucial monitoring, influencing and interpreting of the upcoming Good Jobs Employment Rights Bill, ensuring the voice of the profession is heard where it matters most.
This year will see Scotland go to the polls for the Scottish Parliamentary Elections. The 2024 general election saw Scottish Labour jump from two MPs to 37, while the SNP dropped from 39 to nine. However, just over a year into the new UK Government, Scottish Labour is not on track to replicate those gains at Holyrood. A recent analysis by Ballot Box Scotland has Scottish Labour on 17 MSPs, down four, and the SNP on 62, only one seat lower. The old adage in Scottish politics is that when Westminster sneezes, its Scottish party catches a cold. Keir Starmer’s first year in government has caused Anas Sarwar policy headaches, with the SNP introducing measures they say are designed to mitigate Westminster decisions. Despite leading polls just 18 months ago, Scottish Labour is projected to be the third-largest party - far from their 2024 general election high.
The SNP have already set out their stall for 2026, with the First Minister stating that if the SNP win a majority of seats in the 2026 election, this would constitute a mandate for a second independence referendum. This draws on the precedent of the 2011 SNP majority leading to the 2014 referendum. Current polling puts the SNP on 62, putting them just short of a majority of MSPs. Constitutionally, however, the power to call a referendum sits with Westminster, and there is no indication that a second vote would be allowed.
2026 is likely to be a year of change across the devolved nations, reflected in both Scotland and Wales by the rise of Reform. In Scotland, polling suggests Reform could win up to 21 MSPs - enough to become the second-largest party and, in effect, the opposition. How Reform will operate in the Scottish Parliament remains to be seen.
Given the polling, Scotland is unlikely to see a change of government in 2026, with the SNP entering their third decade in power. John Swinney has stabilised the party since taking over, but the SNP parliamentary group is losing significant figures as they step down. Former First Ministers Humza Yousaf, Nicola Sturgeon and current Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes are all leaving Holyrood. This sits within a wider trend across the parliament: as Holyrood passes its 25-year mark, 38 MSPs have confirmed they won’t seek re-election. Whatever the outcome of the 2026 Scottish Election, the next parliament will look markedly different.
The 2026 Senedd election will bring the biggest changes to Welsh democracy in 25 years. Voters will elect an expanded Senedd of 96 Members, using a new single-vote system across 16 larger constituencies, each returning six Members of the Senedd (MSs). Candidates will now need to live in Wales, and elections will shift to a four-year cycle.
This election in Wales could see a major shake-up, with Reform fighting Plaid Cymru for first place in the election. The most recent YouGov poll of September has Plaid on 30 MSs and Reform on 29. How this plays out post-election in terms of forming a Welsh Government is yet to be seen, but both Reform and Plaid would require a coalition partner or a confidence and supply agreement to form a government. The Caerphilly by-election was the biggest test of Reform's prospects in Wales and saw them come second place with 36% behind Plaid who received 47.4%.
Overall, the Welsh election in 2026 is the most consequential since the establishment of the Senedd 25 years ago. Unlike in Scotland, it is likely a new party will form the government and, depending on which one it is, we may see significant changes to the policy and political landscapes across Wales.
Early 2026 is set to see the Northern Ireland Executive introduce their long-awaited Good Jobs Employment Rights Bill, designed to be the biggest change in employment rights in Northern Ireland in a generation. The Department of the Economy started a public consultation exercise over a year ago, which the CIPD submitted evidence to, with detailed bill drafting ongoing. A long list of changes is being proposed, based around four key pillars: Terms of Employment, Pay and Benefits, Voice and Representation, and Work Life Balance. You can find details of the proposed policies and stay up to date on our tracker page.
Policymakers in Northern Ireland are undoubtedly keeping a close eye on developments around the Employment Rights Act 2025, since many (albeit not all) parts are of a similar nature.
With 2026 bringing these major changes across the devolved nations,we’ll make sure members’ voices are at the heart of these developments, and if you want to be involved, you can help shape our public policy work by getting involved in our CIPD Policy Forum Networks in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Daniel Khan-O’Malley joined the CIPD in October 2025, leading public affairs engagement across Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. He brings over a decade of experience in the UK policy landscape, having worked at Westminster and Holyrood, taught politics at the University of Glasgow, and led policy and public affairs functions in the third sector.
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