Labour Market Outlook

The CIPD’s Labour Market Outlook is a forward-looking indicator of the UK labour market. It is a quarterly survey of 2,000 employers, providing analysis on employers’ recruitment, redundancy and pay intentions combined with unique insights on labour market topics.

The Labour Market Outlook report is released every February, May, August and November. However, the data from it is also included in other reports, blog posts and thought pieces. Its survey insights feed into our consultations with UK Government.

On this page, you’ll find links to key content and communications that use Labour Market Outlook data.

Labour Market Outlook report

Autumn 2023 overview

For over two years, our Labour Market Outlook data has shown discrepancies in future pay awards between the public and private sector. This quarter, the gap has closed and future pay intentions in both sectors are aligned.

Hard-to-fill vacancies are still common – this is forcing employers to look ahead at ways to improve their productivity and efficiency to negate the need to fill certain roles.

Enter generative AI - a potential game changer, offering increased productivity and efficiency. Many employers see AI as more of an opportunity than a risk. Yet, there's caution. Privacy and security concerns are prevalent, especially among those who've opted to ban its use.

Read on for our latest labour market data and analysis on employers’ recruitment, redundancy and pay intentions this autumn.

Labour Market Outlook – Autumn 2023

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Autumn 2023 video summary

Key findings

	Net employment balance remains positive The net employment balance – which measures the difference between employers expecting to increase staff levels in the next three months and those expecting to decrease staff levels – remains positive at +26. Net employment intentions are equal in the private and public sector.
	Redundancy intentions falling for first time in two years Redundancy intentions have fallen for the first time since winter 2021/22. Seventeen per cent of employers are planning to make redundancies in the three months to December 2023.
	Hard-to-fill vacancies prevalent in public sector Forty-one per cent of employers surveyed have hard-to-fill vacancies. Hard-to-fill vacancies remain a problem for the public sector, with half (51%) reporting having them. The level of employers in the private sector reporting hard-to-fill vacancies is lower at 38%.
	Expected pay in public sector now matches private sector The median expected basic pay increase remains at 5% for the fourth consecutive quarter. Expected pay awards in the public sector now match the private sector, both at 5% – the highest ever for the public sector in our time series.
	Generative AI seen as an opportunity to increase productivity Despite a high level of uncertainty (37% of employers don’t know), organisations see implementing the use of generative AI as more of an opportunity (41%) than a risk (23%). Two in five (40%) employers see increased productivity and efficiency as an organisational benefit to using generative AI.
	Privacy and security concerns to using generative AI Thirty-six per cent of employers see privacy and security concerns as the main drawback for implementing generative AI in their workplace. This particularly evident among employers who have banned its use.